NL East
- Phillies
- Marlins
- Braves
- Nats
- Mets
What do I respect? Pitching. And, as everyone knows, the Phillies have arguably the best rotation since the Braves of the 90s (or at least best top 4, although Blanton is certainly serviceable, if not decent). R2C2 are going to be nasty and will keep the Phils in most games through 6 or 7 innings. However, if I am a Phightin’ fan, I would be more than a little worried about the offense. Say what you will about Werth getting 126m but this lineup is markedly worse without him and Chase Utley batting 3 & 5. Rollins is 32 and is at the beginning of a slow but certain decline; Ibanez played most of last season with a fork in his back; and, while nice complimentary players, Victorino and Ruiz cannot be relied upon to provide significant offensive numbers. Thus, that leaves Ryan Howard to carry the load for this team. But without the protection that Utley and Werth provided, Howard is going to get a lot of free passes this summer. But even with an average offense, the pitching should prevail and lead the Phils to a 5th straight division title. Wild Card: Domonic Brown – If DoBro can channel Jason Heyward in his first full season, he should alleviate some of the pressure on Howard.
One of my sleepers that could totally blow up in my face this year is the Marlins. The reason I would be afraid if I were the Phillies is that the Marlins have one of the best collections of young talent outside of San Francisco. Both arms and bats. Stanton, Logan Morrison, and Gaby Sanchez all could have big seasons and I like the signing of John Buck at catcher, who quietly had a nice season for the Blue Jays last year. On the mound, Josh Johnson is one of the good ones and Nolasco, if healthy, should build on last year’s strong start. Even Javier Vasquez can be looked to for something now that he is away from the Bronx jeers. I could definitely see this team in the 2010 SF Giants mold of a team full of young guys who don’t know any better being tutored by seasoned vets with Crash Davis-ian wisdom to impart. The only reason that I am not higher on the Fish is because one of those seasoned vets is Wes Helms. And he is starting at third! If he still is starting in June, I take back all the nice things I said about this team and push them down to 3rd. Wild Card: Mike Stanton. He had 22 HRs in 100 games last year. If he can push that number into the mid-30s, Hanley and Omar Infante are going to be scoring a lot of runs. I mean a lot.
The Braves, however, should be right behind the Miami Marlins. The Bravos have got a new manager, a new power-hitting second baseman (Uggla) and baseball’s next great player (Heyward). What’s not to like? Mostly the starting pitching. When your 1 & 2 are Tim Hudson and Derek Lowe, you are setting yourself up for slightly above average, rather than great. Tommy Hanson should progress this year, however, and snatch away the ace status from Hudson for next season. Either way, the Braves will be in the hunt for the wild card into September. Wild Card: Fredi Gonzalez. Old-man Bobby Cox is gone. This departure could go one of two ways: Players feel refreshed under a young manager OR Fredi is in over his head and loses the team. Icons are hard to replace. Just ask the Utah Jazz.
(Damn, this logo is racist)
As good as the top 3 teams in this division are (or could be in the case of the Marlins), so to are the bottom 2 teams just as awful. With the injury to Strasburg and the drafting of Bryce Harper, I think the Nats get one more year of “wait until next year” talk before the fans start revolting and expecting results (all 5,000 in attendance. Zing). But the offense is not that bad with 2-3-4 of werth-zim-laroche. Not exactly murderer’s row but certainly above average. The pitching staff is full of question marks and stink lines. If Jordan Zimmermann can come back from Tommy John, he could be a nice piece to the puzzle. Same with John Lannan if he can figure out how to not give up 7 run innings. The rest of the guys are placeholders. I’m looking at you, Jason Marquis or as he is know in Atl, St.L, Chicago and Colorado, the Marquis de Suck. Wild Card: Danny Espinosa. Last year’s pleasant surprise hopefully can put together another solid year and be the second baseman of the first great Nats team in 2013.
So the Mets must be really bad if they are worst than the Nats. Well. They are. Awful pitching. Hitters that require crutches to come up to bat. A rule 5 draft pick starting at second base. Pretty pathetic. But they have Shake Shack at Citifield. So that is enough reason for me to head out to Queens this spring. Even if I have to watch this terrible team. Wild Card: The IRS. I try not to read too much about the Wilpon/Madoff scandal but I am hoping for the Mets to be the first team to be bailed out by the federal government. I am aware that is not how it would work but I like the idea of the Mets being “too big to fail” and having the Mets fans respond “what do you mean, we fail every year.”
Nice job, Mr. Leisure. I mostly agree. You make a good point about Lowe and Hudson that nobody else is making - they're just not that good. Agree about the Marlins, who probably had the best offensive team in the division last year. If Hanley Ramirez doesn't turn out to be a total screwball, they could be awesome, even without Uggla. Phillies will be OK without Lidge; they'll miss Werth on the bases and in the field more than anywhere else, but are in trouble if Utley can't come back. It's like the Yankees without Jeter.
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