NL Central

NL Central

1. Brewers
2. Reds
3. Cardinals
4. Cubs
5. Pirates
6. Astros

The Brewers are a hot name this fall so I initially did not want to pick them to win the division but, frankly, I just don’t see any of these other teams taking it from them. They’ve always had quality bats in Braun, Fielder (contract year), Hart, Weeks (coming off a contract year so expect regression) and McGehee and now they have the pitching to back them up. Both Greinke and Marcum should make smooth transitions to the NL and give the Brew Crew a very potent 1-2-3 with Gallardo. This race should be close but it looks like the Brewers have the sausages to pull it off. Wild Card: Shaun Marcum. Very good season last year. AL pitchers usually transition well to the NL. But there is already talk about shoulder problems. Without a healthy Marcum, the Brewers rotation is much less imposing.

The Reds should be nipping at the Brewers heels all season. Votto is a stud and Stubbs and Jay Bruce are on their way to being very good players. Yes, they made the playoffs last year but I am still worried about the health and durability of their starters. Cueto and Homer Bailey are already hurt and Edinson Volquez has had two injury-filled seasons out of three in Cincy. That is enough for me to push them down to #2. Wild Card: Dontrelle Willis. If the Reds starters miss any time, good old Dontrelle is going to get some starts for the Reds. That can either be a good thing (2005) or a bad thing (um…every other year). If Dontrelle gets more than 10 starts, the Reds may finish somewhere closer to 4^th.

What a difference one player can make. Before the injury to Wainwright, I had the Cardinals slotted to battle it out with the Brewers and the Reds for the division. Without him, they are a step below. The offense should be fine with Prince Albert, Holliday, and Colby Rasmus (although Lance Berkman in Right? Really? Really? Expect a lot of triples on balls hit to him in the corner) but the pitching just ain’t there. I know that Dave Duncan works miracles but after Chris Carpenter, the Cards are looking at Jake Westbrook, Kyle Lohse, Jaime Garcia, and Kyle McClellan. Thus, the miracles better be plentiful for the Cards to have any shot at overtaking the Reds and Brewers. At least they have a nice stadium. That should be enough to make Albert stay. Right? Right? Wild Card: Chris Carpenter. If he gets hurt, they are finished.

Ah. The Cubbies. As always, the Cubs are a team of questions. Why has 26 year old Matt Garza been traded 3 times even though he supposedly is an Ace? Can Carlos Pena get above the Mendoza line? Will Cashner become the stud that the Northsiders want him to be? Will Zambrano stop being crazy? Will they make a play for Prince Albert Pujols next winter? For these reasons, I think the Cubs are still a year away. Colvin, Castro, Cashner and Garza are good young players but they still have a lot of dead weight lying around. i.e. Aramis, Fukudome, Soriano. When 2/3 of that crap troika come of the books next season, the Cubs should be a position to make some moves. Wild Card: Cashner. Seize the reins, young man.

Yep. I am going out on a limb and saying the Pirates do not finish 6^th this year. People of Blitzburgh, rejoice. As previously noted in the Curse series (don’t worry, reader (singular), it’s starting up again soon), the Buccos haven’t had a winning season since 1992 and have finished in last place the last four seasons. So finishing in 5^th this year should be like winning the World Series for them. So why 5^th for a team that lost 105 games last year? While it has more to do with how much worse the Astros are, the Pirates have a few nice players that will probably be playing for the Yankees in a couple of years. You could do much worse than Tabata, McCutcheon and Garrett Jones in the outfield and Pedro Alvarez could be a future all-star at 3rd. Their pitching is still awful but, hey, Ross Ohlendorf went to Princeton so he should be able to figure something out. Wild Card: Paul Maholm. I guess he is the Ace.  So he probably should have a good season if they don’t want to be cellar dwellers again.

All of Houston should feel slighted by being viewed as worse than the Pirates but, come on, they are. (Come on, play the “no one believe in us” card, I dare you.) On offense, the Astros have Hunter Pence, a verrrry close to done Carlos Lee and not much else. In the rotation, they have Wandy Rodriguez and a bunch of guys the Phillies didn’t want. They have a lot of young players so this could blow up in my face but this doesn’t look like their year. My apologies to Houston’s newest boomerang kid, Michael Conti. At least you can still bank on the Comets making the playoffs! Wild Card: The Bourn Mediocrity. Low-average, steals a ton of bases but no one to drive him in. Yet another Phillies castoff.  It’s almost like Ed Wade is trying to get all the lousy guys he drafted back in the day. Can’t believe Gavin Floyd isn’t anchoring this rotation.