AL East

With the season starting on Thursday this year (not a fan), I guess I need to pound the rest of these out.

AL East

1. Red Sox
2. Yankees
3. Rays
4. Orioles
5. Blue Jays

I think the AL East may be the toughest division in baseball this year. There are three really good teams and then two teams on the rise for different reasons: O’s have a seemingly excellent line-up and the Blue Jays have four talented young pitchers. But I think the Red Sox are the class of this division for a couple of reasons. First, Terry Francona is a hell of a manager. Last years team was decimated by injuries and still won 89 games. Over the course of the season, 19 players spent 24 stints on the disabled list. Ellsbury, Pedroia and Youkillis each suffered season-ending injuries. Overall, the Red Sox used 53 players in 2010. Those are staggering number to still almost hit 90s wins. Then what do they go and do for this year? Only add a top 5 outfielder and a top three first baseman. Not too shabby. Not sure who is catching on this team but does it really matter? The pitching is not in the same league as the Phillies or the Giants, but I think Beckett and Lackey should have bounce-back years and you know Lester  and Bucholz are studs. Papelbon should scare all the Sawk fans out there but they are going to score so many runs, his averageness will be negated. Get ready to see a new round of freshly printed pink hats. Wild Card: John Lackey. Pretty mediocre season last year at 14-11/4.40 era/1.42 whip for a guy making 16.5 mill a year. In order for the BoSox to be truly dominant this year, they are going to need some quality starts from Lackey. 

As it has been the last few years, I think some combination of the Sawks, Yanks and Rays will take 2 of the 4 playoff spots in the American League. And even though the Yankees got snookered by Cliff Lee and didn’t really add anything over the off-season, the Rays lost a lot, so I am going to have the Yankees taking the wild card. The book on the Yanks is the same. Obviously they’ve got the hitting (if they can stay healthy). Cano, Texiera, and A-Rod are perennial All-Stars who can mash and Gardner and Granderson give them guys with speed that get on base. Even old Posada should be ok hitting now that he doesn’t have to catch anymore. As for pitching, the situation in the Bronx is pretty interesting. After Sabathia (who should kill it because he lost a bunch of weight and because of a loophole in his contract he could theoretically opt out this winter and get another longer huge deal), the Yanks have phil hughes and a couple of prospects and dung piles.  Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon fighting for a spot in the rotation? Really? It must be 1999. Still as with the Sawks, I think the offense prevails. Wild Card: Phil Hughes and A.J. Burnett. If these two guys bomb, the Yankees are stunk as all they’ll have is CC going every fifth day. If they perform well, the Bombers will be right there with the Sox for the division crown. 

The Rays are still a good young team but they lost an awful lot this off-season. Out: Carl Crawford. In: Johnny Damon; Out: Carlos Pena, In: Dan Johnson; Out: Matt Garza, In: Jeff Niemann; Out: Rafael Soriano, In: Jake McGhee; Out: Jason Bartlett, In: Reid Brignac; Out: Joaquin Benoit, In: Kyle Farnsworth. Very few of those moves are upgrades, if any. They still have good young pitching but all their guys are still really young. David Price is definitely quality but does anyone at the Trop trust James Shields? And guys like Hellickson and Wade Davis are so green that you can’t predict yet how they’ll do over a full season. I would not be surprised if the Rays are upended by the upstart O’s for 3^rd place. Wild Card: Manny Ramirez. The ManRam hasn’t done too much since breaking off that monster season for the Dodgers a few years ago. Could a DH spot for the Rays rejuvenate his career for another year. Old people do like to move to Tampa. If Manny’s bat thinks its 2006, the Rays may just have a shot at the playoffs.

I like this Orioles team a lot this year. Now am I slightly biased towards the O’s because they are the Better Half’s team of record and we currently have a 1997 ALCS pennant hanging in our laundry closet? Absolutely. But that doesn’t mean that I can’t take off the rose colored glasses and view this team objectively. Even in a division that is all about offense, the Orioles have assembled themselves a nice one. Possibly the best in the division top to bottom. While there is a little bit of a Boom or Bust nature to some of their hitters, JJ Hardy (if he can stay healthy should be a great addition). Also getting a former All-Star in Mark Reynolds for 35 cents on the dollar is a pretty savvy move. Sure he needs to raise his average and strikeout less but who in baseball doesn’t these days. He is gonna hit 35-40 HRs this year and drive in a bunch of runs. All and all, I like the players they have at every position. Even old-timers Vlad and Derrek Lee should have nice years if they can stay healthy. Unfortunately, the bubble bursts when you get to the rotation. Every slot is either too young, too injury-prone or too average (cough cough Jeremy Guthrie). If the youngsters play out of their minds, Buck’s boys may be able to fight for 3^rd. Otherwise, all the good people of Ballmer should enjoy the summer and know that playoff baseball is on the horizon. Wild Card: Now I like old Nick Mukakis as much as anyone (the Better Half rocked his jersey tee many a time at fair Camden Yards) but at some point Nick is going to need to either shit or get off the pot. His entire career in B-more, Nick has been touted as baseball’s next great five-tool superstar. But, frankly, after a very good 2007, his numbers have declined every single year. He doesn’t hit for power, he doesn’t run even though he has speed and he doesn’t really take a lot of walks anymore. What he is an A+ right-fielder with a C+ bat. He hovers around .300 and hits doubles. That’s about it. For the O’s to make the jump, Nicky is going to have to start looking like the Markakis of 2007 (.300/23 HRs/112 rbis/ 18 sbs) and not the Mukakis of last year (.293/12 HRs/60 rbis/7 sbs). 

The Blue Jays are also another young team nicely set-up for the future. After jettisoning the Vernon Wells (no one can ever say any contract is untradeable ever again.), the Jays have a nice collection of young players with reasonable contracts. How utterly Canadian of them. So reasonable. The offensive firepower is not on par with the rest of the division but I am pretty sure almost any other team in the league wouldn’t mind a rotation of Romero, Morrow, Cecil and Drabek. While it ain’t happenin’ this year, that rotation could make them a real player in the years to come. Wild Card: Kyle Drabek. Future ace? Papa Doug was pretty good. A nice rookie campaign by Kyle could have the Canucks forgetting all about that guy they traded to get him. Who was that anyway, eh? Ray? Ray Holliday? Another Molsons please.