Super Bowl Time

Ah. The Big Game.  The two “best” teams meeting in a showdown for all the marbles.  While historically this game never lived up to the hype, the last three SBs have been pretty darn exciting.  Just think about it. Last year, Tracy Porter pick six’s Peyton Manning with three minutes left to seal the Saints’ first title. In 2009, Santonio Holmes makes a miraculous catch against the Cardinals with :35 seconds left. In 2008, Eli Manning (of all people) leads an 83 yard drive (featuring one of the most amazing catches ever) with 2:40 left to beat the previously undefeated Pats.  If the game this Sunday can match any of these thrillers, I think everyone, regardless of who they are rooting for, will be sitting pretty. So on to the pick.  I have been thinking about the game for a few weeks (as everyone has considering the Pro Bowl is not a thing to be acknowledged or watched) and have done some serious back and forth waffling on this game.  It has been difficult divorcing my feelings Ben Roethelisberger as a person and the Steelers chances of winning. Part of me thinks that if I pick the Stillers to win, I am unconsciously making some sort of implicit pardon of his past actions. I actually started writing a post Wednesday about redemption and ‘winning curing all’ and how I would not be rooting for the Steelers because I truly think Roethelisberger is a scumbag that didn’t really deserve a second chance but today I decided to scrap it because, looking at it again this morning, the tone was a little more holier-than-thou than I would have liked and was not really in character for my blog posts so far.  Maybe some day I will break off something serious but today is not that day.  

So I will get to the pick now. I thought about really breaking things down position-by-position but then I heard something on the radio that solidified my pick.  Green Bay is the smallest city in the United States to have a Big 4 professional team.  When I first heard this, I was a little shocked. My entire life up to this morning, I had always assumed that Green Bay was basically a suburb of Milwaukee.  15 to 20 miles away from downtown. Tops. I mean, was I so wrong in this thinking? They don’t give NFL franchises to tiny little cities. They are given to metropolitan areas.  Little did I know that GB is 112 miles NORTH of Milwaukee and only has a population of around 100,000.  That just blows my mind.  A tiny city  in the middle of nowhere that is always cold has some of the most rapid fans in the League.  Lambeau Field holds 73,128 people. Nuts.  Look at this list from Wikipedia of cities bigger than GB.  Have you even heard of some of these:

            Gresham, OR

            Daly City, CA

            Frisco, TX

            Rochester, MN

            Erie, PA

            West Jordan, UT

            Elgin, IL

           

Could you imagine an NFL team in any of these cities? Overall GB is the 268^th largest city in the country. Right above Davenport, IA and Wichita Falls, TX. Blows my mind. Put another way, the next smallest city is #70 Buffalo which has about 270,000.  I hear you saying the Jets/Giants don’t play in New York City and the Pats play in Foxboro but those stadiums in the metropolitan area and are much closer than 112 miles away.  Thus, as you can probably tell, I am going with the little guys (even though they are favored). With the Steelers getting anywhere from 1.5 to 3 points, I am still taking the Pack and the points. Rodgers has too many weapons and that patchwork Steelers line is going to get exposed.

The Pick:  Pack 27 – Steelers 20

MVP – Aaron Rodgers

Better Half Pick: Green Bay in the game.  Glee after the game.        

I asked the BH if she wanted to write a little something justifying her pick but she  politely declined. It seems the young lady enjoys being mysterious in the eyes of  LRW’s 2.5 readers.

Championship Round

Well that was not pretty.  Another week. Another 1-3 straight up and 2-2 against the spread.  It is looking like I should attach a warning to these picks advising of the fact that apparently I have no idea what I am talking about.  Now I can say that the Bears came through and I was right that the Jets would keep it closer than the 9.5 point spread but, boy, was I way off on the Falcons. Which was stupid of me because I have been telling people for at least a month that I thought the Falcons were frauds.  Not sure why I forgot that last week. 

On another totally disheartening note, the lovely Better Half yet again hit on 3 of the 4 games.  So you there you go.  As always the moral of the story is that I may talk more about something but she still seems to end up right. OK. Let’s keep it short & sweet this week and see what teams I can jinx this week.

Packers at Bears (+3)

1^st Meeting: Week 3. Bears kick a short field goal with 4 seconds left to capture the win in an ugly game that featured three turnovers and 23 penalties (18 by Green Bay).

2^nd Meeting at Chicago: Week 17.  Pack needed win to get into playoffs. Varying accounts of whether the Bears actually cared.  Pack win defensive grudge match 10-3 on a 4^th Quarter Aaron Rodgers TD pass.

3^rd Meeting: Well I have picked against the Packers twice in the last two weeks and, frankly, they’ve made me look a little silly.  Thus, while I will be rooting for the Bears in this game, I am going with the Packers.  (Bears fans probably just breathed a sigh of relief considering my record in the last two weeks).  Atlanta did a decent job of shutting down new hero Starks and the running game and they still got pounded in the air.  I think the Pack just have too many horses for the Bears secondary.  Also Tramon Williams is a ballhawk who should get his hands on at least one rushed Cutler throw.  Packers take it in a lower scoring affair than initially thought.  Pack 20 – Bears 17.

Better Half Pick: Packers

J-E-T-S at Stillers (-3)

1st Meeting at Pittsburgh:  Week 15. Jets shock almost everyone by shaking off their shellacking in New England and stunning loss at home to the Dolphins to go into the Burgh and beat the Steel Workers 22-17. 

2nd Meeting:  I really want to pick the Jets in this one. It would be fun to be here when my local team is in the Super Bowl.  Unfortunately, I think last week against the Pats was the Jets Super Bowl.  Rex got those guys so fired up to go against Belichick and Brady (I mean, did you see Bart Scott after the game) that there has to be some kind of let down. Couple that with the fact that it is extremely difficult to beat a team twice on its home field and all signs point to a big W in Blitzburgh. Yet, in spite of all that, I am going to go against all logic and pick the Jets.  No other team this year has a team of destiny feel to them except the Jets. Because of Hard Knocks people have been interested since day one and I think the pull off another grinder.  Do I feel good about this pick? Not in the slightest.    Steelers 17 – Jets 23

 

Better Half Pick: Pittsburgh

Divisional Round

Well that did not exactly work out as planned. Pretty woeful weekend of predictions for someone who allegedly watches games on a regular basis.  1-3 straight up and 2-2 against the spread.  Only my local Jets threw me a lifeline and even that one was a little too close for comfort.  I personally thought “Mr. Reliable” Adam Veniteri had finished them off by a foot (Zing. Thank you, Daily News) but then Cromartie goes and saves their season with a killer kickoff return.  What makes my prognostication ineptitude especially depressing is that my lovely Better Half went 3-1 when I asked her who would win last weekend.  3-1 with little to no knowledge of what has transpired over the season other than Rex Ryan was funny on Hard Knocks, Mark Sanchez is cute and Joe Flaaco’s name is funny when said in a Baltimore accent.  She took Green Bay, the Jets and the Seahawks. What a trifecta.  If she would have gone with the team that used to applaud her high school band at band camp in Westminister, MD, she could have been a cool 4-0.  Me, on the other hand, an ugly 1-3.  I guess that means the only way to go is up. Hopefully.

A WEEKEND OF RUBBER MATCHES

Ravens @ Steelers (-3)

First Matchup: October 3, 2010: Ravens win 17-14 in Pittsburgh 

What Happened: Ravens squeak out a victory even though Charlie Batch is the Pittsburgh starting QB. Down 14-10, Flaaco directs a 4^th quarter drive that ends with Captain Unibrow finding T.J. Houshmanzadeh in the back of the end zone with 34 seconds left.

                        
Second Matchup: December 5, 2010: Steelers win 13-10 in Baltimore 

What Happened: Another defensive slugfest.  Hanging on to a 10-6 lead with 3 minutes to play, Joe Flaaco fumbles after being sacked by esteemed hair product spokesman, Troy Polamalu.  Little Ben then drives the Stillers to the end zone. Also remembered as the game where fellow Highland High alum Haloti Ngata  (pictured) broke Little Ben’s nose.  Cheers immediately rang out from girls passed out in bathroom stalls from across the country. 

Third Matchup: 

What Will Happen: As noted in Peter King’s MMQB (a solid read from a nerdy dude), the Ravens & Steelers have tangled 8 times in the last 3 years. All have been low scoring games that could have gone either way. Take a look:

                                    2010
                                    Steelers, 13-10
                                    Ravens, 17-14
                                    2009
                                    Steelers, 23-20
                                    Ravens, 20-17
                                    2008
                                    Steelers, 23-14
                                    Steelers, 13-9
                                    Steelers, 23-20

Seven of eight were within 4 points.  That means all except one went down to the final possession.  So we know (a) it is going to be low scoring and (b) it will be close. Against my better judgment and week 17-found disgust for Joe Flaaco, I am picking the visiting Ravens.  They seemed to be clicking on all cylinders against the woefully overmatched Chiefs and I think they will bring that swagger to Heinz Field.  Suggs and a certain former Highland Ram superstud should be able to terrorize Rothlesberger due to an injury depleted O-Line. Mike Wallace and his faux-hawk are the X-factors but I think Joey Flaaco use the whole field and find all of his quality receivers as he did against KC.  Of all the picks I feel the worst about this one but, hey, fortune favors the bold.

The Pick: Ravens 17 – Steelers 14

Better Half Pick :  Bawlmer

Packers @ Falcons (-2.5) 

First Matchup: November 28, 2010: Falcons win 20-17 at home. 

What Happened: After tying the Packers tie the game at 17 with 56 seconds remaining, Falcon returner Eric Weems breaks a nice kickoff return that is made even nicer by a Pack facemask penalty. Starting at the GB 49, Matt Ryan (I refuse to use his stupid nickname) completes four straight short passes to set up a game-winning 49 yard field goal.

Second Matchup 

What Will Happen:  Color me surprised about the Pack’s upset of the Iggles. However, if I would have know the Packers would find a back in Starks that could pound the ball for 120 yard then I may have picked differently.  If they can continue to run the ball like they did in Philly, they are a much more dangerous team than I originally thought.  That said, I am taking the Dirty Birds.  After last week’s huge win, everyone is talking up the Pack to come out of the NFC and I think there may be a let down. Falcons can run the ball too and are beasts at home.  While the Pack may be the only NFC team with a chance to actually win the Super Bowl, the Birds win this one for Gonzo. (12 years in the League, one of the best TEs ever, 0 playoff victories (0-3), crazy)

The Pick: Dirty Birds 27 – Packers: 17 

Better Half Pick : Green Bay

Seahawks @ Bears (-10) 

First Matchup: October 17, 2010: Seahawks win 23-20 at Chicago 
What Happened: Seahawks sacked Cutler six times. Bears were 0 for 12 on third down. Seattle got 111 yards on the ground.

Second Matchup:

  It all seems to come down to protection.  If All-the-Way Jay is not getting bumrushed and has time to find his receivers, they look like a very good team (NYJ, MIN, PHI games).  If the line breaks down, then there are sacks/INTs galore and they look like a team that should be drafting in the top 10 (NYG, Pats, Redskins game).  This really should become more of an issue in the next round because anything above a C- effort should be enough to take out the Seahawks.  Yes, they’re a fun story but they caught a hobbled Saints team (that apparently forgot how to tackle) at the right time.  The Bears will get more pressure on Hasselbeck as Juju Peppers will be all over Okung and his severely sprained ankle. After a couple of hits, the old man will revert back to the guy that everyone assumed was finished.

The Pick: Bears: 27 – Seahawks – 13

Better Half Pick:  Da Bears

Jets @ Pats (-8.5) 

First Matchup: September 19, 2010: Jets win 28-14 in Jersey 

What Happened: Brady throws 2 of the 4 interceptions that he would throw all season.  (That is crazy. 4 total INTs. Eli Manning had 25. Regardless of what you think of his image. Tommy is one of the best all time.) Jets controlled the ground game (136 yards). Sanchez played to his strengths and utilized Dustin Keller. Note: if Keller has a good game, things are likely going well for Gang Green. 

Second Matchup: December 6, 2010: Pats win 45-3 in Foxboro 
What Happened: An annihilation on a much-hyped Monday Nighter.  Brady was Brady (4 TDs, 326 yards); Jets castoff Danny Woodhead extracted some revenge and the Pats D harassed The Sanchize into 3 INTs.

Third Matchup:
What Will Happen:  As much as I have drank the green Kool-Aid in the last few picks, I still can’t pick the Jets to win this game because of the matchup of the men lining up under center.  Sanchez could end up being a great QB (he showed flashes against the Steelers and Bears) but he isn’t there yet.  His accuracy can be atrocious at times (some of those passes on Saturday could have only been caught by Shaq, the young Shaq when he could still jump) and he has a penchant for throwing bad picks in the red zone.  Brady, on the other hand, is there.  Dude probably had one of his best seasons on a team full of rookies and castaways.  It’s amazing. Check out the players that got some time in the End Zone for the Pats:

The Law Firm – 229 rushes/1000 yards/13 TDs – Undrafted
Gronkowski – 42 catches /546 yards/10 TDs – 2^nd Round
Wes Welker – 86 catches/848 yards/7 TDs – Undrafted
Hernandez – 45 catches/563 yards/6 TDs – 4^th Round
Woodhead – 97 carries/547 yards/6 total TDs – Undrafted
Deon Branch – 48 catches/706 yards/ 5 TDs – 2^nd Round
Brandon Tate – 24 catches/432 yards/5 total TDs – 3^rd round

Every other team in the league had the opportunity to pick each of these guys up.  Some of them multiple opportunities. The fact that he makes these guys studs is why Brady is the best QB in the league.  Playing at home with a little something to prove now that Rex is yapping, it’s pretty close to a lock.  I am going to hedge a bit and say the Jets keep it closer than 10 but not much closer.

The Pick: Pats: 31 – Jets: 24 

Better Half Pick: J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets.