What Up With That: Werth to Nats

Wow.  Lots of thoughts on the Jayson Werth signing. First off, I was pretty shocked when I heard the news.  I am surprised the Natinals would make such a huge offer when they still have so many holes in the lineup and are obviously a few years away from really doing something. Maybe the move is aimed at making a run in 2012 and 2013 when Werth and Zimmerman should theoretically be in their primes, Strasburg will be back from Tommy John and Bryce Harper may be ready for major-league ball.  Still, it is just so many years and sooooo much money.  I mean, I get that the Nats have to overpay quality free agents because they are lousy but this deal borders on insane.  If the internets are to be believed, the Phillies offer to Werth was somewhere in the 4 year/66m neighborhood of the Met’s Jason Bay signing last year.  In addition, the Tigers and Red Sox were supposedly in on Werth and willing to add a 5^th year to the deal.  So let’s say that offer looks something like 5 yr/85m.  Solid deal for a solid player.  But then the Nats swoop in with 2 additional years and an extra 40 to 50m in Werth’s pocket.  Holy smokers.  I certainly get it from Werth’s perspective. More job security and more cash in a place where he can perform or not perform in relative obscurity.  If he was tired of being booed after slumps, he picked the right place to go.  

From the Nats perspective … Wow. And not necessarily in a good way.  Even noted-agent/vampire Scott Boras knew what was what. As noted on Twitter, “The Nats offer was so far above everyone else that Boras didn’t even ask other interested teams if they wanted to match.”  So much for negotiating. 

So what can be said about Werth.  Well. He is certainly good to pretty good right now.  Even though he is already 31 and will be 32 in May, he got a fairly late start to his career because of development and injury issues early on.  Thus it is plausible to think that his numbers should go up for the first few years of the contract and stay decent through the middle years.  In 2010, Werth led the NL in doubles (46) and top 10 in in a few categories: extra-base hits (fourth, with 75), runs (fourth, with 106), OPS (sixth, at .921) and OBP (eighth, at .388), among others. So I think his batting average and RBI totals should also go up because there will be much less pressure on him in hitting situations as the 2012 Nats will rarely be involved in any close games. HRs will probably go down as he hit most of his knocks at Citizens Bank Park (19 v. 9 on the road in 2010) and some of those home runs that barely left the yard will be transformed into doubles/flyouts next year. He is good enough in rightfield as well.  

However, right now the Nats have to hope that the best is still yet to come because, on the whole, Werth’s stats are not smack-you-in-the-face amazing.  In basically 5 full years, Werth has never hit .300, never had 100 RBIs, hit over 30 HRs once, and has only been an all-star once.  Certainly being on a team as loaded with hitters as the Phillies have been the last few years certainly means lowered stats in some categories but still you would like to see a little bit more to the guy you just handed 18m to for the next 7 years. Also scary, the most similar batters to Werth on baseball reference are Brad Hawpe and Corey Hart.  The most similar players through age 31 are Brad Hawpe, Jeffrey Hammonds and Trot Nixon.  These are not favorable comparisons.  I mean, Corey Hart is alright and Hawpe has had a couple of good years but Hart makes 3 yrs/$26.5M (11-13) and Hawpe just finished a 3 yrs/$16.93M deal.  I assure you that Hawpe will be lucky to get 5m a year. Definitely not the 18m pulled in by a guy with eerily similar stats (albeit in a shorter time span).

And then there are the years.  Do you know how many 37/38 year old hitter had productive seasons last year?

Ichiro (37)   - Classical Ichiro season. Over .300, over 200 hits, killer glove. Dude’s a freak.

Raul Ibanez (38) – Bolstered by quality bats ahead of him. Benched in the Playoffs. On last legs.

Jim Thome (Old)  - Good little season in limited Abs.

Also I suppose you could put Johnny Damon or Casey Blake if you really want to stretch the definition of productive.

Not an amazing list.  And Werth will still have one more season with the Curly Ws after turning 37.  Ugh.

Lastly, how’s this list look, Nats fans.  Two other players in baseball history have been awarded 7 year/126 m deals.  Brace yourself:

Vernon Wells

Barry Zito

Well at least Zimmerman now knows that the sky is the limit when it is time to extend his contract in 2 years.  He will only be 28 and, along with the Werth K, Troy Tulo (same age) just got a deal from the Rockies which will be worth about 150m.  So Zim can now use Werth's 7/126 as a base and go up from there. Swell.  What's Up with That?

All-Star Snub??? Meh.

First off, I am loving the plethora of “I can’t believe Paul Milsap was left off the All-Star Ballot.” articles that are littering the web in the last few weeks. Any national articles lauding a Jazz man are ok in my book.

Second, I could not care less that he was left off the All-Star ballot.  If anything, it just shows that the way they pick the nominees, basically a few writers/columnists from around the country get together in a room and pick, is flawed.  Dumb.  Really, it doesn’t really matter anyway.  Paul was never going to get voted in by the fans anyway.  NBA All-Star voters around the world vote in stars regardless of their stats.  Millsap could put up 40 a game in the first half of the season and still not get voted in because he is not really a “name” yet.  You have to remember that All-Star voters come from around the world so they vote in the guys they know. i.e. Guys the NBA promotes.  To the best of my knowledge, the Jazz have had one game on national TV.  Lakers/Celtics/Heat got to be at least 6/7 times.  I mean take a look at some of the dubious All-Star starters voted in by the fans.

                 2010 – Allen Iverson – Played 19 games up to the All-Star break.     Cut  by the Grizzlies.

                 2007 – Shaq – Had only played 4 games for the Heat that season.

                 Every year – Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady leading the field in votes.  I can personally attest that this is due to ballot-stuffing in China.  People in China love some T-MAC.  Even though he is now a marginal role player for the Pistons he will still be in the top 10 for Eastern forwards. Mark my words.

In fact, you can pretty much call who the All-Stars will be right now.  What’s the point of voting? Here is what they will be:

EAST:

Dwayne Wade

Rondo or Derrick Rose (This is the only one I am not sure about. People will probably be so shocked that they can’t vote for Allen Iverson they might have a heart attack)

Lebron

Kevin Garnett

Dwight Howard

WEST

Chris Paul

Kobe

Carmelo/Durant (I had Carmelo as a lock but I think KD is starting to take off internationally so he will not be denied.

Tim Duncan

Yao

That’s the list.  Even though some of these guys are hardly deserving of another selection they will still get the votes.  Millsap may be killing Timmy Duncan in the stats department (he is) but it doesn’t matter.  He wouldn’t have been a starter.  The lucky thing is that if he keeps playing the way he is playing he will get the call from the West Head Coach to be an All-Star reserve. D-Will will get one too.

However, the best part of the story is that the guy who cares the least about the “snub” is Paul himself.  When asked by the writer’s decision, Millsap said "It's just one of those things."  "It's not a big deal to me. I'm going to get out there and continue to do what I'm going to do."  Way to be, big man.  Keep on killin’ it out there. 

Just for fun the following scrubs are on the All-star ballot.  Recall that Millsap is averaging 20.4 ppg, 9.1 rpg, 1.21 spg, .93 bpg.

Ron Artest – 9 ppg/3.5 rpg

Trevor Ariza – 10 ppg/5 rpg

Caron Butler – 13 ppg/4 rpg

Grant Hill – 13 ppg / 4 rpg

Hedo Turkoglu – 10 ppg/3 rpg

And that is just the West Forwards. There are plenty of other jokes there as well.

Wowsers

Holy smokers. Boy, am I glad that I did not write that post writing off the Jazz season. Since that post, the Jazz have gone 6-1 with only two of these games being within the friendly confines of Energy Solutions Arena (worst name in sports). But it is not just that they have been on a nice little run. It is how they have won these last 5 games.  In each of these games, the Jazz have been down by at least 10 points and then managed to comeback and win.  Take a look:

11/6 - v. LA Clippers - Down 18 in 3rd quarter   - Final : Jazz 109-Clips 107 OT
11/9 - @ Miami Heat - Down 22 late in 2nd quarter   - Final : Jazz 116 - Heat 114 OT
11/10 - @ Orlando    - Down 18 in the 3rd quarter   - Final : Jazz 104 - Magic 94
11/12 - @ Atlanta      - Down 11 in 3rd quarter   - Final : Jazz 90 - Hawks 86
11/13 - @Charlotte    - Down 19 right before half   - Final: Jazz 96 - Bobcats 95

So what do we take from this?  First, it is a nice little run. If not a total surprise to me. All four of the Eastern teams were playoff teams last year so to beat them in their house is a big accomplishment. Miami and Orlando are arguably 2 of the top 3 teams in the East and so to swept the Florida roadtrip is special.

Second, my previously stated opinion that Chris Bosh is no superstar was certainly reinforced by the Jazz victory.  Bosh was absolutely victimized by Paul Milsap.  Millsap's line? Ho-hum really. Only 46 points and 9 boards, including 11 in the final 28 seconds(!) of regulation when the Jazz were down 8. Most of these points? Over Bosh.  It is hilarious that Bosh cultivated this superstar image for himself because he was the best player for a few years in Toronto.  It is like an Olive Garden chef thinking he is Mario Batali.

Third, holy smokers, Paul Millsap can play.  I remember last year when people were skeptical whether it was a mistake to match Portland's contract offer to Millsap. Well it wasn't.  Paul has been killin' it this season.  He must have worked on his shooting this summer because he has been draining 15 footers and giving up his role as rebounder/garbageman to Big Al Jefferson. Also check out this comparison:

              Millsap:               21.9 points,  9.3 boards, 1.10 steals, .612 fg%, 1.40 Turnovers, 7m a year
              Dwight Howard:  21.6 points, 10.6 boards, .89 steals, .595 fg%, 3.11 Turnovers, 17m a year

Lastly, I am sure this post will act as a jinx. The boys get the Thunder on Monday at home and they've got to be gassed.  However, every time someone tries to count them out Deron and Sloan pull something out of their bag of tricks and will this team to victory.  Hopefully the good people of the City get out and support there team on Monday because this team team is starting to look a little special.

Hot Stove Predictions

Well baseball season is over.  The plucky San Francisco Giants are World Champs.  The Curse of Coogan’s Bluff (post to come) has been excised.  Enjoy it for a year, Gigantes because, unless you are thinking repeat, a curse will be back next year. Likely one involving recently cut World Series MVP Edgar Renteria.  Ugh. I can’t believe I just had to write that.

But with the end of the season, we now turn to the off-season. That’s right. The old Hot Stove League.  Because there are some pretty interesting free agents this season that are likely to move around this season, I thought I’d take a stab at seeing where a few of them will land.  The rankings are provided by espn.com’s Keith Law in his top 50 free agent column.  Some of the rankings are highly dubious so I am only going to do the top 15 and then a couple other notable guys.  When I look back at this in February I am hoping for somewhere close to 25%.  I am that rock-solid with these predictions. New Teams are in Red.

1. Cliff Lee  - YANKEES.  Really is there any doubt?

2. Carl Crawford – ANGELS – LAA of A are a big market team that had a rare off year last season.  They will make a splash by grabbing the best position player available.

3. Jayson Werth – RED SOX – I am tempted to go Yankees here but I think that would mean dumping Nick Swisher so I will go with the Sawk whose outfield was a MASH unit this year. Werth will knock doubles off the monster all season and blend in nicely with the rest of the surly Sawk fans. Besides if he signs with the Yanks he will have to go back to looking like this. No one wants that.

4. Adrian Beltre – RED SOX – Beltre was shockingly good last season. Sawk will overpay to retain his services and he will drop down to his usual averages next year.

5. Victor Martinez – TIGERS – This seems to be the consensus online because V-Mart will also serve as DH.

6. Adam Dunn – CUBS – Dunn refuses to play DH. Cubs will give him a chance to play first which he did decently for the Nats last season. 

7. Carl Pavano – TWINS – Remember when this guy was a joke?  Dude went 17-11, 3.75 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 4.8 K/9 last season for the Twinkies.  They won’t let him or his killer 'stache get away.

8. Jorge De La Rosa – RANGERS - Not really sure about this guy. If his contract is reasonable, I think he stays with the Rockies. But because pitchers contracts are rarely reasonable, he will be on the move. Rangers are in need of a Cliff Lee replacement. Jorge will not be it.

9. Andy Pettite – YANKEES – Or he retires. Just like last year and the year before that. Favre anyone.

10. Jake Westbrook - CARDINALS - Seriously, Keith Law? Jake Westbrook is the 10^th best free agent available??  This class is top-heavy as hell. Westbrook is one of those Cards pitcher that does better than expected with Dave Duncan and usually stink elsewhere. If he knows what is good for him, he stays.

11. Hiroki Kuroda - METS- To be honest, I know almost nothing about this guy even though he’s been playing for three seasons.  He seems decent enough with a poor track record for health.  Sounds like a typical Mets signing to me. Although this costume makes me like him more.

12. Paul Konerko –WHITE SOX—I think he had too good of a season for the ChiSox to dump him.  Would like to see a young Orioles team chase him but I think he stays put.

13. Derek Jeter – YANKEES – As much as I would love to see Jeter end his career as a third baseman for the Rockies, this jabroni ain’t going anywhere. Post script I love Lyla Garrity and she could do much better.

14. Orlando Hudson –NATIONALS – Nats need a warm body for 2B and O-dog need to join his sixth team. As a Nats fan, I’d be fine with this move. Anything is better than Adam Kennedy.

15. Aubrey Huff – GIANTS – They took a flyer on him last year and he came through big time (1 yr/3 m K; .290/.385/.506, 26 HRs, 86 RBIs, 7 SBs).  It would be seriously bad karma to dump him after he was the leader in that clubhouse.

Notable Others

17. Rafael Soriano – ANGELS- Halos need a closer. Fernando Rodney will not cut it.  Soriano is the best available. Go west, young man.

18. Mariano Rivera – YANKEES- Please even though he is old (40!), he’ll be back.

19. Manny Ramirez – ORIOLES – This one was the toughest for me. Have no idea who will still give him a shot. Has to be in the AL so he can DH. Unlikely to be for a team he previously played for. While I don’t really love this move for the O’s (ManRam is a dick), he could be a nice compliment to the Os young hitters if he starts hitting again. Manny stats at Camden Yards: .314/.419/.554 18 HRs, 76 RBIs in 91 games. Not too bad.

28. Vlad Guerrero – RANGERS – Had a good season when everyone thought he was done.  He’ll be back in Arlington next year.

30. Carlos Pena – NATIONALS – Nats need a replacement for Adam Dunn. Pena needs a place where there will be as few people as possible to watch him strikeout. Match made in Mendoza line heaven.

32. Derrek Lee – RAYS– DLee is close to done. With a lot of first basemen on the market this year, he is near the bottom of the list.  Rays will offer him a tiny contract to play some first and maybe DH.  He should take it because old people are supposed to move to Tampa. 

33. Kerry Wood – CUBS – The prodigal son returns. This time as a set-up man.  

 
44. Lance Berkman – BRAVES -- How the mighty have fallen.  Sir Lancelot’s HR totals have gone from 45 to 34 to 29 to 25 to 14.  Not sure why but I think the Bravos take a flyer and are rewarded with a bounceback season. Overall a good fit for Bam Margera's fatter older bro.

 
Alright, GMs. Prove me wrong. Prove me wrong.

What's Up With That : Utah Utes

On the eve of one of the biggest football games in Runnin' Ute history, I thought I would usher in a new type of post I like to call "What's up with that."

Utah Utes Record when I lived 3.6 miles away from Rice-Eccles Stadium (1985-2000) :  104-91, 53% winning percentage. Notable Bowl Games: 1992 Copper Bowl v. Washington St. (L); 1993 Freedom Bowl v. USC (L)(This was an L I experienced in person); 1994 Freedom Bowl v. Arizona (W); 1996 Copper Bowl v. Wisconsin (Thrashed 38-10); 1999 Las Vegas Bowl v. Fresno St. (W). Highest finish: 10th in the AP in 1994.

Utes Record since (2001-present) : 90-29, 76% winning percentage.  Notable Bowl Games: 2003 Liberty Bowl v. Southern Miss (W); 2004 Fiesta Bowl v. Pitt (W); 2005 Emerald Bowl v. Ga Tech (W); 2007 Poinsettia Bowl v. Navy (W); 2008 Sugar Bowl v. Alabama.  Highest finishes: #4 in AP in 2004; #2 in the AP poll in 2008.  2 Undefeated Seasons! 7 straight bowl victories.

I mean, What's up with that?  I get that teams ebb and flow but the Utes success in the last ten years is pretty remarkable.  And with their move to the Pac-10 next season, things should only get brighter. Whittingham and his staff already recruit the hell out of California and now being in a major conference will continue to up their stock nationally.  The people of the SLC should be very excited for things to come. 

As for this Saturday's game, I am on the fence.  The Horned Frogs are pretty darn good on O and D but the Utes get good home crowds and the Muss should be rocking Rice-Eccles Saturday afternoon. Even so I guess I'm gonna be a hater and take TCU and the points (-4.5).  TCU's D should be able to slow Jordan Wynn enough for the Andy Dalton to get a lead.  I hate to do it but what can you say:

Cursed: St. Louis Cardinals

In the world of curses, not every curse is the Curse of the Bambino.  Some are more subtle.  You need a magnifying glass and a fine tooth comb to figure out what is currently ailing the team. Well, maybe not a magnifying glass but definitely the ability to skillfully navigate baseball-reference.com....with a fine-tooth comb.

 

Notwithstanding my killer research skills with these sort of things, I can see Cardinal fan sitting there saying "Cursed? What are you talking about? We just won the World Series in '06. How can we be cursed?"  Well, my response would be unless you won it this year something eerie is afflicting your franchise.  Which leads me to...

THE CURSE OF THE DREAMWEAVER

Before the Curse:  10 World Series Championships ('26, '31, '34, '42, '44, '46, '64, '67, '82, '06)  Won the 2006 World Series in 5 games.

After the Curse: Made the playoffs once in 4 seasons.  Swept in 2009 Division Series by the Dodgers.

THE CURSE:  I know what your saying.  Jeff effin' Weaver?  That's the best you've got? Well, yes. It is.  Sure, he has a pretty mediocre career record of 104-119 in 11 seasons with 6 mlb teams.  Sure, baseball reference finds him similar to such megastars as Ishmael Valdez, Andy Ashby and Sidney Ponson. And sure he "sat out" the whole 2008 season because he did not want to toil in the minor leagues for the Brewers.  So why does this journeyman get the honor of cursing one of baseball's classiest franchises?  Because in the 2006, the dude just brought it. 

Acquired in July 2006 from the Angels for a bag of balls named Terry Evans, the Dreamweaver brought his usual averageness to the Cards going 5-4 with a 5.18 era and 45 Ks in 15 starts.  45 Ks in 15 starts?!? Sweet Jesus.  But luckily for the Cardinals, Weaver inked a sweet deal with the devil in time for the playoffs.  In the Division Series against the Padres, Weaver went 5 strong inning giving up only 3 hits and no runs. 1 win.  In the NLCS, he went 1-1 with a 3.17 era winning game 5.  But it was the Series where he really brought his A game.  Even after losing Game 2 to the Tigers, Weaver dominated in the clinching Game 5 throwing 8 innings while only yielding 4 hits.  On top of that, he had 9 Ks.  Overall Series stats: 1-1, 13 IPs, 14 Ks.  Not too shabby.

And how did the Cards reward this workhorse that helped them through the playoffs? By allowing him to sign a 1 year, 8 million contract with the Mariners.  Is this fair?  Should a team be punished for not wanting to overpay an extremely average pitcher after a pretty good two week stretch at the end of the season? No, it probably isn't fair.  But as I have discovered in my research, the Baseball gods are very fickle.  Karma is all-around the baseball diamond so you best not eff with it.  If that means keeping an innings-eater, who would ultimately end up going 7-13 with a 6.20 era in 2007, on your roster for another year then so be it.

EVIDENCE OF THE CURSE:

• Finished 3rd in division in 2007
• Finished 4th in division in 2008
• Wins division in 2009. Swept by the Dodgers in NLDS.
• Finished 2nd in 2010.  Faded big time after leading the division in August.
• Signed Kip Wells to replace Weaver.  It did not go well. 7-17. 5.70 era
• Has Tony LaRussa as manager.

CONCLUSION:  merely a mild case of being CURSED.

PRAYER FOR RELIEF: It is tough to say that any team with Albert Pujols can be considered cursed.  But if he leaves the Cards next year and/or is found to be juicing then I think this curse can and should be revisited.  In the meantime, it may not hurt to try and make a play for Jeff's little bro, Jered.  Jered is waaaay better than is big brother and could smooth over any