NCAA Realignment Plan: Change We Can All Believe In

I think we all know that something is rotten in the state of college athletics. I think we’ve known for a while now but recently, through the exceedingly brazen actions of players, coaches, school administrators and boosters, the proverbial camel’s back may have been broken. And with conferences disintegrating as we speak someone needs to come in and make some sense of this debacle. Congress couldn’t do it. ESPN attempted to give its own objective review (whilst paying millions to the NCAA) and unsurprisingly failed. So, what the hell, I’ll give it a shot. But, frankly, all the ills of college sports, football in particularly, are too much to handle for one man. So I am just going to tackle conference realignment (I will leave the paying of players to the 50,000 word article in this month’s Atlantic). In the next few weeks, several of the major conferences are going to look fairly different. Some will expand, while others may disintegrate completely. And, because this is all about money, (let’s not kid ourselves) we might as well try and maximize all potential cash by providing the best possible matchups. 

 So in this plan the Big 12 and Big East are things of the past. Don’t be so shocked though. Remember the Southwest Conference? It had storied history too but people got over it. So this has been done before. All the Big East & Big 12 teams will be absorbed into 5 new, 16-team Super Conferences each consisting of 4 four-team “pods.” (This part is definitely not an original idea. This has been floating out for a while.) These conferences would consist of four power conferences and one expanded second-tier Conference USA. Each team would play the 3 other teams in their pod each year (strengthening old rivalries and cultivating new ones) and then 5 of the other teams in their conference (switched around randomly each year). Each team would then also have the ability to schedule two non-conference games. No one wants to see Florida lose the ability to play FSU or Clemson-South Carolina, Utah-BYU, Texas-Texas A&M, etc. This would also lead to better quality of play as there would be fewer cupcakes and more evenly matched contests. So, ok, we are up to a 10 game regular season so far. Then the winners of each pod move into a four-team, two week conference championship to determine the conference winners. These games will utilize regional stadiums in a similar way as the early December bowl games.  Each Conference Champ will then be given an automatic bid to the 8-team, three week National Championship with the other 3 spots being filled by three wild card teams. These teams, unfortunately, would need to be selected by some sort of BCS computer program factoring in strength of schedule (further reason not to schedule cupcakes), quality of victory, record, etc. Then these teams battle it out for the crown. Now, I know what you’re saying. You’ve got these kids playing an NFL schedule! 15 games! Insanity. My response would be while, yes, the top teams are playing more games it isn’t all that many more. If Alabama goes to their conference championship and a bowl, they will have played 14 games this year. Same with Stanford. Same with Ohio St., Oklahoma and Florida. 14 games has become the standard for a team with championship aspirations. So does adding one game really add all that much more? In the words of Kevin McAllister “I don’t think so.” If there are any flaws (and trust me there are many ,I’m sure) it is that your lower level teams, i.e. your Dukes, UVAs, and Kentuckys, etc., will now go from having 11 or 12 games a year to only having 10. My response would be 1) I am sure there would be some sort of conference revenue sharing to ease your troubles and 2) get better and that won’t be a problem.

So now we’ve got a system where the best team has an avenue to prove that they are the best team in the conference and then ultimately the best team in the land. So now let’s look at the restructured conferences. New teams are bolded.

ACC

Duke UNC NC St Wake Forest

Florida St. Miami Clemson Ga. Tech

Syracuse UCONN Pitt Boston College

Maryland UVA Va. Tech WVU

Big Central (Formerly Big 10/11/12)

Michigan Ohio St. Michigan St. Penn St.

Nebraska Missouri Kansas Kansas St.

Illinois Indiana Northwestern Purdue

Minnesota Wisconsin Iowa Iowa St.

Big West (Formerly PAC 12)

Washington Wash St. Oregon Oregon St.

Texas Oklahoma Texas Tech Okla St.

USC UCLA Cal Stanford

Colorado Utah Arizona Arizona St.

SEC

Florida Georgia South Carolina LSU

Auburn Alabama Miss St. Ole Miss

Kentucky Louisville Vanderbilt Tennessee

Texas A&M Baylor TCU Arkansas

Conference USA (The Other Guys)

Tulsa New Mexico SMU Houston

UCF USF UAB So. Miss.

BYU Boise St. UNLV San Diego St.

Rutgers Cincy Memphis ECU

To flesh out the new Conference USA, Fresno St. and UTEP are taking the place of TCU and Boise St in the Mountain West as TCU and the Broncos are headed up to USA. Rice, Tulane and Marshall are also being relegated to the new Mountain West in favor of UNLV, San Diego St. and New Mexico. This conference is then combined with the WAC to form the new WAC conference. This league is not given an automatic bid to the tournament but could play their way into one of the at-large spots. Also to fill out a sixteen team conference I’ve brought up Montana from the minor leagues. They seem to do pretty ok down there so they should acclimate themselves well.

So the new Western Athletic Conference now looks like this aka The Little West:

Rice La. Tech Tulane Marshall

Hawaii Air Force Fresno St. San Jose St.

Nevada Utah St. Idaho UTEP

Wyoming Colorado St. New Mexico St. Montana

So who gets screwed? Obviously Rutgers probably deserves better than a spot in the thrown together Conference USA but frankly they just haven’t been good enough in football or hoops to warrant a place at the big kids table. Same with South Florida and Cincy but they don’t really fit into the landscape either. USF almost made it into the new SEC but Louisville’s hoops and natural rivalry with Kentucky won out.... Maybe you could say BYU gets screwed out of a spot with the big conferences but it doesn’t look like the PAC 12 wants them because of their religious affiliations. If the Cougars end up staying independent (which would be dumb because they could be competing for the USA crown every year) UNLV would join USA and Hawaii would join the Mountain West. ... The MWC and other smaller conferences (the WAC, MAAC, Sun Belt and WAC) do basically become third-tier teams in this model but if they can go 10-0 and win their conference title, there is still a shot for one of the at-large bids to the Championship tournaments. There could also be some sort of relegation system with Conf USA but I haven’t fully fleshed that out. ....The new system also probably screws the Golden Domers and maybe pushes them into joining a major conference because teams only get 2 non-conference games, Notre Dame may have difficulty scheduling the top teams. ...Certainly Marshall, Rice and Tulane will argue that they deserve better than the new look WAC but, seriously, when was the last time any of these teams made any noise? In hoops or football? The last time Rice played in a meaningful football game it was 1956 and Marshall’s football glory days with Randy Moss and Pennington were when they were an I-AA team. Since they’ve hit the big-time all they’ve done is get throttled by WVU. Their move to the Little West at least gives them a shot.

But what about Big East Hoops? 

Unfortunately, as this whole plan (and the country in general) mostly centers around football, the non-football  supporting teams of the Big East kind of get screwed over. As the Big East football schools head to the ACC, SEC and Conf USA, the basketball schools are left out in the cold.  But are they going to sit around and cry about it? Hell no. They are going to rally the wagons and keep this ship afloat. I love mixing metaphors. With the departures of the teams above, the currently bloated Big East slims down to an 8-team, pretty good, not great basketball/other sports league that retains the Big East name and several of the teams that made the Big East great. Thus the new and possibly improved Big East Hoops Conference looks like:

Georgetown Villanova

Depaul Marquette

Seton Hall Notre Dame

Providence St. Johns

Pretty decent if you ask me.

So why this plan is good:

ACC: Brings in 4 teams that strengthen the quality of its football, while also make it bar-none the top basketball conference in the land. An ACC hoops tournament with UNC-Duke-UCONN-Syracuse-Pitt-Maryland? Umm. Yes, please. This move also stretches the reach of the ACC North and West by adding New England and Pennsylvania. It also renews old Big East rivalries including UConn-Boston College and WVU-Va. Tech. Further, the pods work geographically. Carolina, South, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic.

Big Central: Becomes THE conference for the Midwest. Decent adds for football but the additions of Kansas and Mizzou make this a much deeper hoops conference. Good geographic matchups in the pods. Nebraska rejoins some of its old Big 12 brethren while Iowa St gets matched up with Iowa.

PAC 16: Addition of the Texas/Oklahoma team adds serious flash to the PAC as a football conference. The transition shouldn’t be too rough either as most of these teams already practice the PAC 12-air it out and play average defense philosophy. The pods set up well and make sense: Northwest/California/Mountain West/Texlahoma. Lots of money will be made with a set-up like this. Imagine USC meeting Texas in the Conference Championship game at the Cotton Bowl or the Rose Bowl. Epic.  

SEC: Adding depth to an already deep football legacy. TCU, A&M and Baylor are solid additions that make sense geographically while Louisville brings good basketball and is a natural rival with Kentucky. Also the pod set-up allows Arkansas to relive its old SWAC days by being matched up with A&M and Baylor. Also a pod with Georgia, Florida, LSU and South Carolina? Just sick.

So there it is. Unfortunately, the Plan's biggest problem is that it is too logical. The NCAA hates logic. 

AL West

AL West

1. Rangers
2. A’s
3. Angels
4. Mariners

Well, I think this tiny little division gets the redheaded stepchild award for worst overall division. I am not sure if any of these teams are any good and they definitely sport the absolute worst team in the league in the Mariners. We could be looking at a team taking the division with somewhere in the ballpark of 85 wins. Yikes. Regardless, the Rangers are probably the best. They have quality hitters in Hamilton, Cruz, Kinsler and Michael Young but who knows if Adrian Beltre will be the contract year Beltre (monster) or every other year Beltre (decidedly less monster). Also, even though he is but one man, the loss of Cliff Lee will really sting. All of their pitchers seem pretty average in spite of having good years last year. Case in point: C.J. Wilson had 16 wins last year and yet I was able to draft him in the 22^rd round of my fantasy draft. This is not an encouraging sign. Wild Card: Brandon Webb. A former Cy Young winner with the D-Backs, Webb has been MIA for the last two seasons with injuries. If he can find his old magic, the Rangers rotation won’t be missing Cliff Lee that much and the Rangers should cruise into October.

Ah. The Moneyballers. Now that there is a Brad Pitt as Billy Beane movie in the works there should be a lot of attention on the A’s this fall. And this years A’s team looks like pretty much every other A’s team since the departure of Jason Giambi. Very little power. Good OBP. Aging former star DHing. Good young pitchers. Cavernous stadium where foul balls go to die. In spite of this, I think the moves to get Coco Crisp, DeJesus and Josh Willingham are solid. Willingham, in particular, had a nice season last year and I was kind of surprised to see the Nats dump him. Kurt Suzuki is fine at catcher and their rotation should build on getting a lot of starts last year. It will be bad for them if Andrew Bailey is out for an extended period of time because you never, never ever ever want to have to put the game in Brian Fuentes hands. Wild Card: Hideki Matsui. One more go around for the former Godzilla. Does he have anything left in the tank? Can he better the .278/21/84 he put up for the Angels last year? Is there enough porn in Oakland to satisfy his voracious appetite for adult entertainment? If Matsui can drive in those moneyballers, Oakland may just make the Rangers sweat a little bit.

The Angels are mildly frisky to me only because they seem oh so desperate. They are like a girl in their late 30s making a last shot at the Ring by signing up for e-harmony and going on dates like crazy. The clock is ticking and they may make some questionable decisions in order to get what they want. (With killer analogies like that, I may go from being a 3^rd rate Bill Simmons to a 2^nd rate Bill Simmons. Unfortunately, I am not in love with Kevin Durant or Blake Griffin). The Angels’ questionable decision was basically bailing out the Blue Jays on their awful Vernon Wells contract. Halos basically took on the remainder of Vernon’s contract (something to the tune of 4 yrs, 85 million) for basically nothing. Now I know they were spurned by Carl Crawford, Cliff Lee and any other free agents of note. But this decision is madness. It’s not like you took on all that cash to get Pujols. You’re taking on a guy whose closest baseball-reference.com similar players are Aubrey Huff, Rondell White, and Cliff Floyd. Would you pay any of those guys half of what Vern is making? No shot. Probably not even a 1/4^th.  They do have a nice 1-2 punch with Haren and Weaver but Joel Pinero, Scott Kazir and Elvin Santana don’t scare anyone anymore. That, along with a fairly mediocre power lineup, and it seems like the Halos will be looking at two straight years without the playoffs. Expect to hear a lot of Pujols to the Angels talk next winter. Wild Card: Kendry/s Morales. Any 27 year old guy who (1) breaks his leg during a home plate celebration and (2) changes the spelling of his name seven years after the last S was left off his Angels contract in 2004, because he “just never bothered to tell anyone,” is definitely a wild card. As goes Kendry/s, so go the Angels.

Here it is. The bottom of the barrel. Even with an honest-to-God Ace and one of the best hitters ever, this Mariners team is by far the worst team in the league. So bad, they are giving the fans compost on Opening Day. "Hey, fans, here is a giveaway that personifies our upcoming season. Enjoy."  They should pop the champagne if they win 60 games. This is just a bad team. Triple A quality.  And I like the Smoak Monster as much as the next guy but when he is your best power hitter its gonna be a long season. And, Lord knows, that there will be all kinds of trade talk about King Felix. Might as well just pull the trigger and get a nice package from the Yankees. Maybe pry away Jesus Montero? Because this team really should not play anyone over 25 this season. Time to give the young guys some experience because this team they are fielding isn’t going to do anything. Wild Card: Michael Pineda. This young pitcher is pretty much the Mariners only glimmer of hope after they trade Felix Hernandez. He’s got nasty stuff and should reassure the good people of Seattle that better times (they couldn’t be much worse) are down the road.

AL Central

AL Central

1. White Sox
2. Tigers
3. Twins
4. Indians
5. Royals

This division is sort of a poor man’s version of the NL East. Three teams that are fairly close to each other at the top and two teams at the bottom that are much, much worse. The White Sox, Tigers and Twins are all pretty much built in the same mold. A couple of power hitters (VMart & Cabrera/Dunn& Konerko/Mauer & Morneau) stuck into lineups of youngsters and defensive specialists.  None of them have rotations that are anything special but each sport a solid bullpen. So this could end up being any combination of these three but I am going to go with the ChiSox seizing the division crown. I think their offense is a little bit better than the others and I like their 2-5 more than either of the other teams. Verlander and Liriano are certainly better than Buerle but I like Danks, Gavin Floyd and even Edwin Jackson as a whole over the other units. The Tigers should be right there but their pitching is shaky after Verlander and Max Scherzer. Will Rick Porcello be the stud rookie of two years ago or the guy that got sent down in July last year? Also Miguel Cabrera is too much of a wild card for me to pick them as champs after his shenanigans last month. Drunkenly telling a police officer to “shoot you” to put you out of your misery is not exactly what you like to hear out of your 153 million dollar man. As for the Twins, they just keep plugging along. Continually being overlooked and then making the playoffs anyway. Echoing something that is usually said in March and then often proven wrong in September, the Twins just don’t look like they have enough this year. Moreanu is a question mark with concussions and Carl Pavano is still prominently involved so I think 3^rd place sounds just about right. But not too far back.  Wild cards: Jon Danks, Rick Porcello, Brian Duensing. Each of these teams need another starter to step up and be a stopper. If one of these guys can do it, they could propel their squad to top of the list.

This Indians team is not very exciting and only in 4^th because the Royals are still teething. Thus I think I will preview the cinematic Cleveland Indians circa-1990. Holy smokers, Sons of the Cuyahoga. Who expected a season like that last year? We start the season off with a bunch of dudes we’ve never heard of and end as division champs! And this year, the Tribe should be able to take it all the way. Anchored by possible the best 1-2 punch in the Rick Vaughn-Eddie Harris combo basically guarantees two wins out of every five. Willie Mays-Hays should be poised to break Rickey Henderson’s steals record this year. That is, if Pedro Cerrano doesn’t bring him home after one of his mamouth 450 foot home runs. straight into Lake Erie. Praise to Jobu, indeed. Hopefully veterans Jake Taylor and Roger Dorn have got another season left in the tank because the cupboard is fairly bare in terms of prospects. All and all, this should be the year that the curse of Cleveland finally comes to an end. And, if not, I just saw this amazing 6 year old hoopster out on the public courts in Akron. Surely he will bring Cleveland a title down the road even if the Wild Thing cannot. Wild Card: Faceless White Guy. Man, if this dude who plays all the other pitchers and every other position beside C, CF, RF and 3^rd gets it together, these Indians could really be something.

And scene.

Finally, the Royals. What can we say about them. Zack Grienke became Jeff Francis. Kind of a downgrade. After a couple years of fighting it, the Royals seem to be in a full-blown rebuilding mode. They jettisoned off most of their off-field in order to make room for the young guys. Growing pains can be tough and this won’t be a fun season for the Royals faithful. But, hey, at least they have great barbeque. The better half and I went to Arthur Bryant’s in August and it was excellent. Much better than the Royals-A’s game we went to of which the only highlight was the guy behind us in left field continuously calling Rajai Davis “Chili Davis” over the course of about 7 innings. By the 8^th, Rajai looked back at him and just shook his head. It was hilarious. Wild card: Mike Moustakas. I have heard this guy is there best prospect for a while now. Time to see some production because it seems the Alex Gordon ship has sailed.

AL East

With the season starting on Thursday this year (not a fan), I guess I need to pound the rest of these out.

AL East

1. Red Sox
2. Yankees
3. Rays
4. Orioles
5. Blue Jays

I think the AL East may be the toughest division in baseball this year. There are three really good teams and then two teams on the rise for different reasons: O’s have a seemingly excellent line-up and the Blue Jays have four talented young pitchers. But I think the Red Sox are the class of this division for a couple of reasons. First, Terry Francona is a hell of a manager. Last years team was decimated by injuries and still won 89 games. Over the course of the season, 19 players spent 24 stints on the disabled list. Ellsbury, Pedroia and Youkillis each suffered season-ending injuries. Overall, the Red Sox used 53 players in 2010. Those are staggering number to still almost hit 90s wins. Then what do they go and do for this year? Only add a top 5 outfielder and a top three first baseman. Not too shabby. Not sure who is catching on this team but does it really matter? The pitching is not in the same league as the Phillies or the Giants, but I think Beckett and Lackey should have bounce-back years and you know Lester  and Bucholz are studs. Papelbon should scare all the Sawk fans out there but they are going to score so many runs, his averageness will be negated. Get ready to see a new round of freshly printed pink hats. Wild Card: John Lackey. Pretty mediocre season last year at 14-11/4.40 era/1.42 whip for a guy making 16.5 mill a year. In order for the BoSox to be truly dominant this year, they are going to need some quality starts from Lackey. 

As it has been the last few years, I think some combination of the Sawks, Yanks and Rays will take 2 of the 4 playoff spots in the American League. And even though the Yankees got snookered by Cliff Lee and didn’t really add anything over the off-season, the Rays lost a lot, so I am going to have the Yankees taking the wild card. The book on the Yanks is the same. Obviously they’ve got the hitting (if they can stay healthy). Cano, Texiera, and A-Rod are perennial All-Stars who can mash and Gardner and Granderson give them guys with speed that get on base. Even old Posada should be ok hitting now that he doesn’t have to catch anymore. As for pitching, the situation in the Bronx is pretty interesting. After Sabathia (who should kill it because he lost a bunch of weight and because of a loophole in his contract he could theoretically opt out this winter and get another longer huge deal), the Yanks have phil hughes and a couple of prospects and dung piles.  Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon fighting for a spot in the rotation? Really? It must be 1999. Still as with the Sawks, I think the offense prevails. Wild Card: Phil Hughes and A.J. Burnett. If these two guys bomb, the Yankees are stunk as all they’ll have is CC going every fifth day. If they perform well, the Bombers will be right there with the Sox for the division crown. 

The Rays are still a good young team but they lost an awful lot this off-season. Out: Carl Crawford. In: Johnny Damon; Out: Carlos Pena, In: Dan Johnson; Out: Matt Garza, In: Jeff Niemann; Out: Rafael Soriano, In: Jake McGhee; Out: Jason Bartlett, In: Reid Brignac; Out: Joaquin Benoit, In: Kyle Farnsworth. Very few of those moves are upgrades, if any. They still have good young pitching but all their guys are still really young. David Price is definitely quality but does anyone at the Trop trust James Shields? And guys like Hellickson and Wade Davis are so green that you can’t predict yet how they’ll do over a full season. I would not be surprised if the Rays are upended by the upstart O’s for 3^rd place. Wild Card: Manny Ramirez. The ManRam hasn’t done too much since breaking off that monster season for the Dodgers a few years ago. Could a DH spot for the Rays rejuvenate his career for another year. Old people do like to move to Tampa. If Manny’s bat thinks its 2006, the Rays may just have a shot at the playoffs.

I like this Orioles team a lot this year. Now am I slightly biased towards the O’s because they are the Better Half’s team of record and we currently have a 1997 ALCS pennant hanging in our laundry closet? Absolutely. But that doesn’t mean that I can’t take off the rose colored glasses and view this team objectively. Even in a division that is all about offense, the Orioles have assembled themselves a nice one. Possibly the best in the division top to bottom. While there is a little bit of a Boom or Bust nature to some of their hitters, JJ Hardy (if he can stay healthy should be a great addition). Also getting a former All-Star in Mark Reynolds for 35 cents on the dollar is a pretty savvy move. Sure he needs to raise his average and strikeout less but who in baseball doesn’t these days. He is gonna hit 35-40 HRs this year and drive in a bunch of runs. All and all, I like the players they have at every position. Even old-timers Vlad and Derrek Lee should have nice years if they can stay healthy. Unfortunately, the bubble bursts when you get to the rotation. Every slot is either too young, too injury-prone or too average (cough cough Jeremy Guthrie). If the youngsters play out of their minds, Buck’s boys may be able to fight for 3^rd. Otherwise, all the good people of Ballmer should enjoy the summer and know that playoff baseball is on the horizon. Wild Card: Now I like old Nick Mukakis as much as anyone (the Better Half rocked his jersey tee many a time at fair Camden Yards) but at some point Nick is going to need to either shit or get off the pot. His entire career in B-more, Nick has been touted as baseball’s next great five-tool superstar. But, frankly, after a very good 2007, his numbers have declined every single year. He doesn’t hit for power, he doesn’t run even though he has speed and he doesn’t really take a lot of walks anymore. What he is an A+ right-fielder with a C+ bat. He hovers around .300 and hits doubles. That’s about it. For the O’s to make the jump, Nicky is going to have to start looking like the Markakis of 2007 (.300/23 HRs/112 rbis/ 18 sbs) and not the Mukakis of last year (.293/12 HRs/60 rbis/7 sbs). 

The Blue Jays are also another young team nicely set-up for the future. After jettisoning the Vernon Wells (no one can ever say any contract is untradeable ever again.), the Jays have a nice collection of young players with reasonable contracts. How utterly Canadian of them. So reasonable. The offensive firepower is not on par with the rest of the division but I am pretty sure almost any other team in the league wouldn’t mind a rotation of Romero, Morrow, Cecil and Drabek. While it ain’t happenin’ this year, that rotation could make them a real player in the years to come. Wild Card: Kyle Drabek. Future ace? Papa Doug was pretty good. A nice rookie campaign by Kyle could have the Canucks forgetting all about that guy they traded to get him. Who was that anyway, eh? Ray? Ray Holliday? Another Molsons please.

NL West

NL West

1. Rockies
2. Giants
3. Dodgers
4. Padres
5. Diamondbacks

Alright, here is my first curveball. Everyone and their mother has already cemented the Giants’ place in the NL Championship but I think they fall back a little bit this year. And the Rockies should be right there to pick up the slack. As long as Troy Tulo and CarGo haven’t spent the last few months since getting their huuuuuuge deals snacking on hundreds of Rocky Mountain oysters, the offense for the Rox should be real good, mostly because it is so balanced. Power, average, speed. They got it. They’ve also got 3 good starters in Ubaldo, De La Rosa, and Jhoulys. I also think Jhoulys breaks out a real nice season this year. Hopefully by May I will know how to pronounce his name. Wild Card: Todd Helton. To solidify this upset, the Rox are really going to need more from Mr. Rockie than the putrid .256/8/37 he put up in 400 ABs last year. If he doesn’t have it anymore, Jim Tracy needs to pull off the band-aid and install Ty Wigginton at first.

Now, stop your yelling. Here are the current World Champs. The Giants pitching should keep them in the mix for the wild card but it is damn tough to repeat. Last year they were a scrappy bunch of overachievers. Now they are the champs with a bullseye on their backs. I’m not sure they can be dominant over a whole season mostly because they’re offense is not that great. Sure they played well in the playoffs but can you really trust Pat Burell, Cody Ross, and Aubrey Huff to still have quality seasons at this stage in their career? Also how did the Champs “upgrade” the left side of the infield? Bringing in Miguel Tejada. When in the last 5 years was that a good idea? Dude could be anywhere from 36 to 60.  But they still have good pitching, Buster Posey is awesome and Brandon Belt should make an impact if he gets a call-up this year so they should be A-OK. Wild Card: Pablo Sandoval. I read yesterday that he lost 40 pounds over the off-season. 40 lbs. Holy hell. I have no idea how that would affect a ballplayer. Is his power gone? Does he have more range at 3^rd? Is he still a panda? However, if he brings them the all-star quality bat of 2 years ago, the Gigantes may just leapfrog the Rockies.

Nothing like a team being stuck in the middle of a nasty divorce proceeding. Marital strife of millionaires aside, the Dodgers have some nice pieces. Kemp and Andre Ethier are talented, young outfielders and a rotation of Kershaw, Billingsley, Ted Lilly and Kuroda is decent (mostly Kershaw and Billingsley though. It makes me shiver thinking Ted Lilly might be thought of as decent.) But with a decent rotation like that you need way more offense than a lineup of Jay Gibbons, Marcus Thames, Casey Blake, and James Loney are going to provide. With a couple more pieces, this team could be officially “frisky” but as is they are strictly 3^rd place material. Wild Card: Don Mattingly. Donnie Baseball gets his first shot at managing. If he grows back the ‘stache and cuts those damn sideburns, he could inspire the Dodgers all the way to the top.

What can you say about the Padres? Their pitching isn’t bad. They lucked out by having the ‘triple a’ diamondbacks in their division. But, man, they are gonna miss Yo Adrian Gonzalez. I am not sure who is gonna drive in runs for this team. At the “power” positions (1^st, 3^rd, LF, RF), they’ve got Brad Hawpe, Chase Headley, Ryan Ludwick and Will Venable (Will who?) Ugh. Total HRs for this bunch last year? 50. For reference, the Rockies power guys had 91. Yankees? 106. So I just don’t know who is going to actually hit. I know that they were right in the thick of the NL West race until the end of the season last year but a lot of that was because of Yo Adrian so I am not expecting a repeat. Besides they live in San Diego. It is 80 degrees and sunny every day. To have a good baseball team as well would be unfair.  Wild Card: Anthony Rizzo and Casey Kelly. Might as well bring up the prospects they got for Adrian. They won’t help this year but might as well see if they can play.

It’s going to be a long summer in the desert for the Diamondbacks. Ian Kennedy, Barry Enright, Joe Saunders, Aaron Heilmen, Daniel Hudson. No, that’s not the accounting team of your local H&R Block. That’s the D-backs rotation. Not good. On O, they’ve got Justin Upton and Stephen Drew and not much else. OK I’ll give you Montero as a better than average catcher option but Melvin Mora starting at third? Really? Is this 2004? And how about Juan Miranda at 1^st? Yes, “who?” is the appropriate response to that.  Hilariously he is listed on espn as a DH. That should really help out the D-backs a lot. But don’t worry they have Brandon Allen backing him up. Yep. Don’t know who that is either. Why they traded Mark Reynolds I have no idea. This team’s season is already done. Just enjoy the heat. It’s a dry heat. So it’s OK. Wild Card: Daniel Hudson is the only pitcher they have that can be anything more than average. He should be their Ace by 2012.

   (I'm guessing Amar'e ain't rockin the D-back hat anymore. Closet full of Yankees gear. I can tell.)

NL Central

NL Central

1. Brewers
2. Reds
3. Cardinals
4. Cubs
5. Pirates
6. Astros

The Brewers are a hot name this fall so I initially did not want to pick them to win the division but, frankly, I just don’t see any of these other teams taking it from them. They’ve always had quality bats in Braun, Fielder (contract year), Hart, Weeks (coming off a contract year so expect regression) and McGehee and now they have the pitching to back them up. Both Greinke and Marcum should make smooth transitions to the NL and give the Brew Crew a very potent 1-2-3 with Gallardo. This race should be close but it looks like the Brewers have the sausages to pull it off. Wild Card: Shaun Marcum. Very good season last year. AL pitchers usually transition well to the NL. But there is already talk about shoulder problems. Without a healthy Marcum, the Brewers rotation is much less imposing.

The Reds should be nipping at the Brewers heels all season. Votto is a stud and Stubbs and Jay Bruce are on their way to being very good players. Yes, they made the playoffs last year but I am still worried about the health and durability of their starters. Cueto and Homer Bailey are already hurt and Edinson Volquez has had two injury-filled seasons out of three in Cincy. That is enough for me to push them down to #2. Wild Card: Dontrelle Willis. If the Reds starters miss any time, good old Dontrelle is going to get some starts for the Reds. That can either be a good thing (2005) or a bad thing (um…every other year). If Dontrelle gets more than 10 starts, the Reds may finish somewhere closer to 4^th.

What a difference one player can make. Before the injury to Wainwright, I had the Cardinals slotted to battle it out with the Brewers and the Reds for the division. Without him, they are a step below. The offense should be fine with Prince Albert, Holliday, and Colby Rasmus (although Lance Berkman in Right? Really? Really? Expect a lot of triples on balls hit to him in the corner) but the pitching just ain’t there. I know that Dave Duncan works miracles but after Chris Carpenter, the Cards are looking at Jake Westbrook, Kyle Lohse, Jaime Garcia, and Kyle McClellan. Thus, the miracles better be plentiful for the Cards to have any shot at overtaking the Reds and Brewers. At least they have a nice stadium. That should be enough to make Albert stay. Right? Right? Wild Card: Chris Carpenter. If he gets hurt, they are finished.

Ah. The Cubbies. As always, the Cubs are a team of questions. Why has 26 year old Matt Garza been traded 3 times even though he supposedly is an Ace? Can Carlos Pena get above the Mendoza line? Will Cashner become the stud that the Northsiders want him to be? Will Zambrano stop being crazy? Will they make a play for Prince Albert Pujols next winter? For these reasons, I think the Cubs are still a year away. Colvin, Castro, Cashner and Garza are good young players but they still have a lot of dead weight lying around. i.e. Aramis, Fukudome, Soriano. When 2/3 of that crap troika come of the books next season, the Cubs should be a position to make some moves. Wild Card: Cashner. Seize the reins, young man.

Yep. I am going out on a limb and saying the Pirates do not finish 6^th this year. People of Blitzburgh, rejoice. As previously noted in the Curse series (don’t worry, reader (singular), it’s starting up again soon), the Buccos haven’t had a winning season since 1992 and have finished in last place the last four seasons. So finishing in 5^th this year should be like winning the World Series for them. So why 5^th for a team that lost 105 games last year? While it has more to do with how much worse the Astros are, the Pirates have a few nice players that will probably be playing for the Yankees in a couple of years. You could do much worse than Tabata, McCutcheon and Garrett Jones in the outfield and Pedro Alvarez could be a future all-star at 3rd. Their pitching is still awful but, hey, Ross Ohlendorf went to Princeton so he should be able to figure something out. Wild Card: Paul Maholm. I guess he is the Ace.  So he probably should have a good season if they don’t want to be cellar dwellers again.

All of Houston should feel slighted by being viewed as worse than the Pirates but, come on, they are. (Come on, play the “no one believe in us” card, I dare you.) On offense, the Astros have Hunter Pence, a verrrry close to done Carlos Lee and not much else. In the rotation, they have Wandy Rodriguez and a bunch of guys the Phillies didn’t want. They have a lot of young players so this could blow up in my face but this doesn’t look like their year. My apologies to Houston’s newest boomerang kid, Michael Conti. At least you can still bank on the Comets making the playoffs! Wild Card: The Bourn Mediocrity. Low-average, steals a ton of bases but no one to drive him in. Yet another Phillies castoff.  It’s almost like Ed Wade is trying to get all the lousy guys he drafted back in the day. Can’t believe Gavin Floyd isn’t anchoring this rotation.