Wow. Lots of thoughts on the Jayson Werth signing. First off, I was pretty shocked when I heard the news. I am surprised the Natinals would make such a huge offer when they still have so many holes in the lineup and are obviously a few years away from really doing something. Maybe the move is aimed at making a run in 2012 and 2013 when Werth and Zimmerman should theoretically be in their primes, Strasburg will be back from Tommy John and Bryce Harper may be ready for major-league ball. Still, it is just so many years and sooooo much money. I mean, I get that the Nats have to overpay quality free agents because they are lousy but this deal borders on insane. If the internets are to be believed, the Phillies offer to Werth was somewhere in the 4 year/66m neighborhood of the Met’s Jason Bay signing last year. In addition, the Tigers and Red Sox were supposedly in on Werth and willing to add a 5th year to the deal. So let’s say that offer looks something like 5 yr/85m. Solid deal for a solid player. But then the Nats swoop in with 2 additional years and an extra 40 to 50m in Werth’s pocket. Holy smokers. I certainly get it from Werth’s perspective. More job security and more cash in a place where he can perform or not perform in relative obscurity. If he was tired of being booed after slumps, he picked the right place to go.
From the Nats perspective … Wow. And not necessarily in a good way. Even noted-agent/vampire Scott Boras knew what was what. As noted on Twitter, “The Nats offer was so far above everyone else that Boras didn’t even ask other interested teams if they wanted to match.” So much for negotiating.
So what can be said about Werth. Well. He is certainly good to pretty good right now. Even though he is already 31 and will be 32 in May, he got a fairly late start to his career because of development and injury issues early on. Thus it is plausible to think that his numbers should go up for the first few years of the contract and stay decent through the middle years. In 2010, Werth led the NL in doubles (46) and top 10 in in a few categories: extra-base hits (fourth, with 75), runs (fourth, with 106), OPS (sixth, at .921) and OBP (eighth, at .388), among others. So I think his batting average and RBI totals should also go up because there will be much less pressure on him in hitting situations as the 2012 Nats will rarely be involved in any close games. HRs will probably go down as he hit most of his knocks at Citizens Bank Park (19 v. 9 on the road in 2010) and some of those home runs that barely left the yard will be transformed into doubles/flyouts next year. He is good enough in rightfield as well.
However, right now the Nats have to hope that the best is still yet to come because, on the whole, Werth’s stats are not smack-you-in-the-face amazing. In basically 5 full years, Werth has never hit .300, never had 100 RBIs, hit over 30 HRs once, and has only been an all-star once. Certainly being on a team as loaded with hitters as the Phillies have been the last few years certainly means lowered stats in some categories but still you would like to see a little bit more to the guy you just handed 18m to for the next 7 years. Also scary, the most similar batters to Werth on baseball reference are Brad Hawpe and Corey Hart. The most similar players through age 31 are Brad Hawpe, Jeffrey Hammonds and Trot Nixon. These are not favorable comparisons. I mean, Corey Hart is alright and Hawpe has had a couple of good years but Hart makes 3 yrs/$26.5M (11-13) and Hawpe just finished a 3 yrs/$16.93M deal. I assure you that Hawpe will be lucky to get 5m a year. Definitely not the 18m pulled in by a guy with eerily similar stats (albeit in a shorter time span).
And then there are the years. Do you know how many 37/38 year old hitter had productive seasons last year?
Ichiro (37) - Classical Ichiro season. Over .300, over 200 hits, killer glove. Dude’s a freak.
Raul Ibanez (38) – Bolstered by quality bats ahead of him. Benched in the Playoffs. On last legs.
Jim Thome (Old) - Good little season in limited Abs.
Also I suppose you could put Johnny Damon or Casey Blake if you really want to stretch the definition of productive.
Not an amazing list. And Werth will still have one more season with the Curly Ws after turning 37. Ugh.
Lastly, how’s this list look, Nats fans. Two other players in baseball history have been awarded 7 year/126 m deals. Brace yourself:Vernon Wells
Barry Zito
Well at least Zimmerman now knows that the sky is the limit when it is time to extend his contract in 2 years. He will only be 28 and, along with the Werth K, Troy Tulo (same age) just got a deal from the Rockies which will be worth about 150m. So Zim can now use Werth's 7/126 as a base and go up from there. Swell. What's Up with That?
